There have been increasing national and global incidences such as pandemic, bushfires, and trade war, causing extreme disruptions to businesses of all kinds due to the increasingly inter-dependency of supply chain participants. The impacts of such disruptions on industries or businesses vary due to the nature of the industries and the size and establishment of the businesses. Small and emerging industries in the Australian agricultural sector, while agile in exploring market opportunities and responding to consumer needs, are vulnerable to extreme disruptions compared to large and well-established industries.

The lack of understanding in the impacts of such disruptions on both production and profitability poses significant challenges in undertaking risk assessment and planning. This project aims to develop that understanding from a global supply chain perspective through: 1) evaluating the direct and indirect factors and their inter-relationship to model the impacts of extreme disruptions on production and profitability; 2) identifying and assessing priority areas for mitigation; and 3) developing an Excel-based software package for industries to assess impacts of extreme disruptions in varying scenarios.

Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) will be used to model the impacts with desktop research and interviews as input for development of preliminary DAG models and survey to finalise the models indicating direction and strength of inter-relationships. The project will contribute to an improved understanding of the impacts of extreme disruptions on production and profitability in small and emerging industries, and enhanced capability in preparedness for and recovery from these disruptions, leading to long-term enhancement of industry resilience.